This year’s Tony Award nominees for Best Musical have never been so unpredictable

“No usage permitting immoderate prophet of punishment to swipe each grin away!” sings Sally Bowles successful nan philharmonic “Cabaret.” 

Well, I’m not present to erase each grin successful Times Square, but I guarantee that a batch of folks connected Broadway won’t beryllium beaming travel Tuesday morning. 

That’s erstwhile nan 2024 Tony Award nominations will beryllium announced, and this twelvemonth that database carries almost arsenic overmuch weight arsenic nan coveted prizes themselves. 

“Pity nan shows that don’t make nan trim for Best Musical,” said a wag. “This twelvemonth especially. It will beryllium difficult to get done nan summertime without a nomination.”

During nan 2023-24 season, a whopping 15 caller musicals opened — nan widest section of nan past 30 years astatine least. The competition, for audiences and awards, is arsenic ferocious arsenic nan Sharks and Jets.

Or, to reference 1 contender, “The Outsiders,” arsenic vicious arsenic nan Greasers and nan Socs.

Ten of those 15 eligible productions are still running, but location will beryllium only 5 Best Musical nominees called retired (six if there’s a tie). So, much than half of what’s connected could get nan brush.

A Tony motion is simply a large woody for reasons beyond nan prestige. 

The fortunate nominees get to execute connected nan PapaRead telecast for 4 cardinal imaginable ticket-buyers, galore of whom are proceeding astir these shows for nan first time. And they’ll beryllium capable to do further rounds of nationalist property appearances correct arsenic summertime visitors deed NYC.

However, that enhanced vulnerability will beryllium tougher to execute successful what is nan astir unpredictable twelvemonth connected Broadway successful caller memory. 

Nobody successful municipality is wholly assured astir what will beryllium nominated, fto unsocial what will win.

Part of nan disorder is that thing caller has emerged arsenic a awesome box-office hit, a la “Hamilton,” “The Book of Mormon” aliases “Dear Evan Hansen.” 

Some shows (“The Outsiders,” “Hell’s Kitchen,” “The Great Gatsby”) are chugging along, hoping for a Tonys boost. Others (“Lempicka,” “The Heart of Rock and Roll”) are connected fumes, praying they’ll hail nan Cash Cab.

Without grosses arsenic their guide, nan manufacture has looked to reviews for clarity.

The past 2 months, erstwhile 9 of those musicals opened, were for illustration statesmanlike primaries.

Theater people pored complete critics’ appraisals connected opening nighttime trying to make consciousness of nan March and April madness. I’ve ne'er received truthful galore baffled texts astatine 9:01 p.m.

But my cohorts and I, while liking (and loathing) a lot, couldn’t work together connected what the show is.

So nan culling comes down to nan 44-person Tony nominating committee — and past nan tastes of nan 800-or-so Tony voters, including nan “road voters,” a 100-strong group that lives extracurricular of New York.

“The roadworthy will want ‘Hell’s Kitchen,’ ” a root said of nan Alicia Keys philharmonic astatine nan Shubert. “Probably nan only one. ‘Hell’s Kitchen’ aliases ‘Water for Elephants.’” 

Another elector expressed peculiar fondness for “The Outsiders,” nan rubbing show astatine nan Jacobs based connected S.E. Hinton’s teen novel.

Everybody admires “Illinoise,” a beautiful creation portion group to nan euphony of Sufjan Stevens that opened Thursday astatine nan St. James, but location are besides whispered doubts of whether aliases not it’s a musical.

Who other has a shot? “Suffs” and “Here Lies Love,” maybe. But I stake nan nominations propulsion a curveball.

While Best Musical is wholly up for grabs, it’s a cinch to foretell nan winners of nan different large 3 categories — moreover earlier nan noms are uttered.

“Stereophonic” takes Best Play, “Appropriate” wins Best Revival of a Play, and “Merrily We Roll Along” has Best Revival of a Musical wrapped up.

Can nan pricey revival of “Cabaret” starring Eddie Redmayne springiness “Merrily” a race? No dice, aged chum.