See Trump and Harris' paths to 270 electoral votes — and build your own

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are hunting for votes pinch 2 months to spell successful nan statesmanlike race. Specifically, they're hunting for electoral votes — and nan different paths to triumph done nan halfway battleground states.

You tin representation them each retired yourself pinch NBC News' "Road to 270" tool, an interactive electoral representation that shows disconnected nan different routes to an all-important full of, you guessed it, 270 electoral votes needed to triumph nan presidency.

Build and stock your ain map, aliases look done nan different scenarios NBC News experts Steve Kornacki and Kristen Welker person drawn up, from nan astir apt paths to triumph to immoderate much different aliases chaotic combinations.

Remember: In nan 7 halfway battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, President Joe Biden's biggest triumph successful 2020 was by little than 2.8 percent points successful Michigan. Trump's biggest (and only) triumph was by little than 1.4 points successful North Carolina. Not overmuch separated these states past time, and that could make for immoderate different trends and combinations this time.

Use nan Road to 270 instrumentality yourself here.

Harris' nonstop path: done nan Great Lakes

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin person each voted nan aforesaid measurement successful each predetermination since 1992 — and each but 1 clip (2016) it was for nan Democrat. Even earlier Harris subbed successful for Biden, polling showed nan Democratic summons faring amended successful these 3 states than successful nan Sun Belt battlegrounds. This is successful portion because Trump’s polling gains this twelvemonth person travel from younger and nonwhite (especially Hispanic) voters, who are little abundant successful these states.

All Harris has to do is clasp this trio (and debar immoderate surprises elsewhere) and she’ll person nan 270 electoral votes she needs.

See nan script here.

Trump's nonstop path: done nan Sun Belt

For astir of this twelvemonth Trump has tally stronger successful Georgia and Arizona than successful nan bluish battleground states. This is owed successful portion to strides he’s made pinch nonwhite voters, particularly younger Latinos. Since entering nan race, Harris has gained crushed pinch these voters, perchance opening up a Sun Belt way of her own.

Still, it would return very small for Trump to flip Georgia (he mislaid by conscionable nether 12,000 votes successful 2020) and Arizona (the separator was conscionable complete 10,000 past time). If he does that (and doesn’t person a hiccup successful North Carolina), each Trump would past request is immoderate 1 of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Of those three, nan closest successful 2020 was Wisconsin, which Trump mislaid by astir 20,000 votes.

See nan script here.

An electoral tie

We mention nan anticipation each 4 years, and here’s what it would return this clip around: Trump holds connected to North Carolina and flips Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, bringing him to 268 electoral votes. Meanwhile, Harris protects nan aged “blue wall” trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, seemingly putting her astatine 270.

But then…

Nebraska’s Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District (which Trump carried successful 2016 and past mislaid successful 2020) returns to nan GOP fold, lifting Trump into a 269-269 necktie pinch Harris, which would past beryllium surgery by the newly sworn in House of Representatives — wherever Trump would beryllium nan clear favorite, since each authorities delegation would person 1 vote, pinch Republicans presently controlling much delegations than Democrats.

See nan script here.

More different scenarios: Can Trump triumph without North Carolina?

North Carolina is nan only authorities of nan 7 halfway battlegrounds that Trump really won successful 2020 — but he carried it by conscionable 1 percent point. The Trump run ramped up its spending successful North Carolina after Harris ascended to nan apical of nan ticket.

Yet successful nan arena that Trump falls short location and Harris becomes nan first Democrat since 2008 to triumph nan state, Trump still has a way to victory.

That way would impact Trump taking down nan “blue wall” and carrying each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, arsenic he did successful 2016. It would mean nan 7 halfway battleground states would not beryllium swinging successful nan aforesaid direction, since Biden won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin successful 2020 while losing North Carolina.

Then, moreover if Trump wins those 3 states, he would still person to triumph either Arizona aliases Georgia to eke retired a triumph without North Carolina.

See nan script here.

More different scenarios: Can Harris triumph without Pennsylvania?

An important improvement since Harris replaced Biden atop nan Democratic summons has been nan party’s improved outlook successful nan Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. And this expanded Democratic representation gives Harris nan anticipation of getting to 270 electoral votes moreover if she loses successful nan Great Lakes states.

Say Trump wins successful some Michigan (15 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) — wherever nan polling remains close. Harris tin still get supra 270 electoral votes by winning Georgia (16 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes) and North Carolina (16 electoral votes).

Or opportunity Harris besides loses Nevada. She tin still dress up for it by winning Arizona and its 11 electoral votes. Again, this script would trust connected states swinging successful other directions compared to 2020. But since they were bunched up truthful intimately then, who is to opportunity nan populations haven't changed capable to create an different situation?

See this script here and more, including what a dream predetermination nighttime would look for illustration for Trump aliases Harris.